Banks Said No. $6 Billion Said Yes.

A Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026 look at U.S. revenue based finance origination volume and what is driving the surge.

The U.S. Revenue Based Finance market just posted one of its strongest quarter over quarter growth signals in recent memory.

Comparing Q1 2025 to Q1 2026 projections, total RBF origination volume grew from approximately $4.8B to $5.2B to a projected $5.6B to $6.1B. That is a 15% to 17% year over year increase.

At the firm level, the Q1 2025 baseline was already elevated. Enova originated $1.7 billion and Square Loans hit $1.59 billion. Entering Q1 2026, major algorithmic lenders are targeting continued origination growth of 15% or more for the full year, aligning with the broader market expansion.

What is driving the volume surge?

A record 94% of small business owners are projecting operational growth this year. However, traditional banks are simultaneously tightening loan covenants, and inflation remains a top concern for operators. The result is a widening gap between capital demand and bank credit supply. SMBs are aggressively turning to the RBF space to bridge cash flow gaps and cover rising costs.

For participants in the commercial receivables ecosystem, funders, syndicators, and capital allocators, this Q1 data reinforces a structural trend. Alternative lending is not a cyclical spike. It is becoming the primary capital access point for a growing segment of U.S. small businesses.

The question for the rest of 2026 is whether origination infrastructure and risk management frameworks can scale proportionally with demand.